Monday Briefing:

FOMC

Powell is likely to hike interest rates another 25 basis points going into the end of 2023
While inflation has "cooled" off from 2022 highs, we haven't seen inflation hit Powell's 2% target yet
The Fed would need to hold or increase current interest rates for at least another year to combat inflation without action from Congress

Historically speaking, when the Fed pivots and begins cutting interest rates, a recession (and major dump in stocks) follows a few months after
Rate cuts might be good for first time home buyers, but they're generally bad for lenders, investors, and savings

The S&P is continuing its downtrend off the Head & Shoulders patterns we identified months ago
We take note of Trendline "B" - the old support line from the bearish trends of last year
We've been noting that the market is experiencing a strong headwind - that the rally we saw over the summer was fueled by uneducated investors jumping on the hype around AI (which failed to deliver)
We're expecting price action to retest $400/399 levels before bouncing or crashing at the end of this year