My Trading Notes for this week:

Last week the market dipped after the September jobs report printed a decrease in unemployment
- The unemployment numbers insinuated that the Fed will continue raising interest rates into November
- The Fed is of the opinion that unemployment must go up for consumer prices to come down
This week September CPI data comes out October 13, 2022, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time
- Expect selloffs, short squeezes, and high volatility before and immediately after the numbers are printed

S&P 500 / $SPY

I am still bearish overall
- Inflation is still high - even if it comes down in September, anything above 4% is ludicrous for normal market conditions
- War is escalating in Ukraine and talks of using nuclear weapons is making headlines
- The Fed is going to continue raising interest rates, even if inflation is down in September - Jerome Powell is clear he will remain aggressive on bringing down inflation
There is a chance for a small market rally if the CPI print is favorable
- Possible test of previous (red) support line and then an expected bounce back down when the market faces reality again
I highlighted a bottom range for the S&P
- There has been support at this level before; let's see if it will get tested again

What does this mean for crypto?

Bitcoin / $BTC

The resistance line from All Time High was rejected again, as expected
- If you've been reading my newsletter, you would have seen this coming
The (red) support line was rejected as well - bearish indication that lower prices are coming
Risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies are going to take a hit
- Likely we could retest ~$17.6k again
I'm watching the RSI - there more room for the downside coming off the oversold peak at resistance
I'm going to continue dollar cost averaging on every oversold level on the RSI
Expecting volatility at confluence - price movement should match what equities are doing

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